DevCan - Probability of Developing or Dying of Cancer

Statistical models are used to compute the probability of being diagnosed or dying of cancer from birth or conditional on a certain age. DevCan takes cross-sectional counts of incident cases from the standard areas of the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program conducted by the National Cancer Institute, and mortality counts for the same areas from data collected by the National Center for Health Statistics, and uses them to calculate incidence and mortality rates using population estimates from census data for these areas. These rates are converted to the probabilities of developing or dying from cancer for a hypothetical population. Please note that when the program refers to cancer or incidence, it is referring only to the cancer site that you requested.

DevCan 6.7.9 is the current version of the software (released April 2021). It supports rate editing, sensitivity analysis, user-defined databases, confidence intervals, and the ability to get risk estimates from any age to any age. All revisions made for the current release of the software are listed in readme.txt. The methods section provides information about the methods used in DevCan including a comparison to methods used in previous versions.

This version of DevCan includes the following two incidence databases with matching US mortality data, and a US mortality database for calculating probability of dying:

  • SEER 21 incidence database for 2000-2018 with with Kaposi Sarcoma and Mesothelioma classified as individual sites. This database includes detailed racial and ethnic data
  • SEER 9 incidence database for 1975-2018 with follow-back to 1975.
  • Total US mortality data for 2000-2018 with Kaposi Sarcoma and Mesothelioma classified as individual sites. This database includes detailed racial and ethnic data.

Additional DevCan databases are available as downloadable DevCan databases.

Getting DevCan Statistics

Statistics related to lifetime risks are available from a variety of sources and there are several tools available for finding or calculating statistics.

Last Updated: 15 Apr, 2021