Table 1 - Melanoma of the Skin (Invasive)

Trends in U.S. Mortalityc Using the Joinpoint Regression Program
1975-2017 With up to Five Joinpoints

Table 16.1 - U.S. Melanoma Mortality, (invasive) Both Sexes by Race, 1975-2017

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U.S. Cancer Mortalityc, 1975-2017
Race/
Ethnicity
Model Joinpoint Trend 1 Joinpoint Trend 2 Joinpoint Trend 3 Joinpoint Trend 4 Joinpoint Trend 5 Joinpoint Trend 6 AAPC
d
Comparability Ratio Estimate
Years APC Years APC Years APC Years APC Years APC Years APC 2008-17 2013-17
All Races Jump^ 1975-77 4.7 1977-88 1.4* 1988-10 0.4* 2010-14 -1.5 2014-17 -7.3*     -3.1* -5.9* 0.9513&
All Races Comparability Ratio 1975-88 1.6* 1988-13 0.2* 2013-17 -6.6*             -2.9* -6.6* 0.9677&
All Races Standard Joinpoint 1975-88 1.6* 1988-13 0.0 2013-17 -6.3*             -2.9* -6.3*  
White Jump^ 1975-77 4.8 1977-87 1.6* 1987-10 0.5* 2010-14 -1.2 2014-17 -7.1*     -2.8* -5.7* 0.9514&
White Comparability Ratio 1975-87 1.9* 1987-13 0.4* 2013-17 -6.3*             -2.7* -6.3* 0.9677&
White Standard Joinpoint 1975-88 1.8* 1988-13 0.2* 2013-17 -6.0*             -2.6* -6.0*  
Black Jump 1975-11 -0.4* 2011-17 -5.2*                 -3.6* -5.2* 0.9047
Black Comparability Ratio^ 1975-11 -0.6* 2011-17 -5.2*                 -3.7* -5.2* 0.9677&
Black Standard Joinpoint 1975-11 -0.7* 2011-17 -5.1*                 -3.7* -5.1*  

^ Indicates the final selected model.

Table 16.2 - U.S. Melanoma Mortality, (invasive) Males by Race, 1975-2017

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U.S. Cancer Mortalityc, 1975-2017
Race/
Ethnicity
Model Joinpoint Trend 1 Joinpoint Trend 2 Joinpoint Trend 3 Joinpoint Trend 4 Joinpoint Trend 5 Joinpoint Trend 6 AAPC
d
Comparability Ratio Estimate
Years APC Years APC Years APC Years APC Years APC Years APC 2008-17 2013-17
All Races Jump^ 1975-87 2.4* 1987-09 0.9* 2009-14 -1.3 2014-17 -7.6*         -3.2* -6.1* 0.9280&
All Races Comparability Ratio 1975-88 2.3* 1988-10 0.6* 2010-14 -1.5 2014-17 -7.5*         -3.1* -6.0* 0.9677&
All Races Standard Joinpoint 1975-87 2.4* 1987-97 0.9* 1997-00 -1.7 2000-09 1.0* 2009-14 -1.4* 2014-17 -7.6* -3.2* -6.1*  
White Jump^ 1975-87 2.5* 1987-09 1.0* 2009-14 -1.0 2014-17 -7.4*         -3.0* -5.8* 0.9279&
White Comparability Ratio 1975-87 2.6* 1987-10 0.7* 2010-14 -1.3 2014-17 -7.3*         -2.9* -5.8* 0.9677&
White Standard Joinpoint 1975-87 2.5* 1987-97 1.0* 1997-00 -1.6 2000-09 1.1* 2009-14 -1.1 2014-17 -7.4* -3.0* -5.8*  
Black Jump^ 1975-17 -1.4*                     -1.4* -1.4* 1.1204
Black Comparability Ratio 1975-17 -0.9*                     -0.9* -0.9* 0.9677&
Black Standard Joinpoint 1975-17 -1.0*                     -1.0* -1.0*  

^ Indicates the final selected model.

Table 16.3 - U.S. Melanoma Mortality, (invasive) Females by Race, 1975-2017

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U.S. Cancer Mortalityc, 1975-2017
Race/
Ethnicity
Model Joinpoint Trend 1 Joinpoint Trend 2 Joinpoint Trend 3 Joinpoint Trend 4 Joinpoint Trend 5 Joinpoint Trend 6 AAPC
d
Comparability Ratio Estimate
Years APC Years APC Years APC Years APC Years APC Years APC 2008-17 2013-17
All Races Jump 1975-88 0.8* 1988-13 -0.5* 2013-17 -6.1*             -3.0* -6.1* 0.9851
All Races Comparability Ratio^ 1975-86 1.0* 1986-13 -0.3* 2013-17 -6.4*             -3.1* -6.4* 0.9677&
All Races Standard Joinpoint 1975-88 0.8* 1988-13 -0.5* 2013-17 -6.0*             -3.0* -6.0*  
White Jump 1975-86 1.1* 1986-13 -0.2* 2013-17 -5.9*             -2.8* -5.9* 0.9860
White Comparability Ratio^ 1975-86 1.1* 1986-13 -0.1 2013-17 -6.1*             -2.8* -6.1* 0.9677&
White Standard Joinpoint 1975-86 1.1* 1986-13 -0.3* 2013-17 -5.8*             -2.8* -5.8*  
Black Jump^ 1975-17 -0.5*                     -0.5* -0.5* 0.8465
Black Comparability Ratio 1975-17 -1.0*                     -1.0* -1.0* 0.9677&
Black Standard Joinpoint 1975-17 -1.1*                     -1.1* -1.1*  

^ Indicates the final selected model.

Footnotes

Joinpoint Regression Program Version 4.8.0.0, April 2020, National Cancer Institute. (https://surveillance.cancer.gov/joinpoint/).

The APC is the Annual Percent Change based on rates age-adjusted to the 2000 US Std Population (19 age groups - Census P25-1130).

c Trends are from US Mortality Files, National Center for Health Statistics, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

d The AAPC is the Average Annual Percent Change and is based on the APCs calculated by Joinpoint.

e API - Asian/Pacific Islander, AI/AN - American Indian/Alaska Native, NH - Non-Hispanic

f Hispanic and Non-Hispanic are not mutually exclusive from whites, blacks, Asian/Pacific Islanders, and American Indians/Alaska Natives. Incidence data for Hispanics and Non-Hispanics are based on NHIA and exclude cases from the Alaska Native Registry. The Hispanic and Non-Hispanic mortality trends exclude deaths from New Hampshire and Oklahoma.

g Data for American Indian/Alaska Native are based on the PRCDA(Purchased/Referred Care Delivery Areas) counties.

* The APC/AAPC is significantly different from zero (p<.05).

* The APC/AAPC is significantly different from zero (p<.05).

- Joinpoint regression line analysis could not be performed on data series.

& Significant at level 0.05 for test of Comparability Ratio = 1.

Last Updated: 15 Apr, 2020