Table 1 - Melanoma of the Skin (Invasive)

Trends in U.S. Mortalityc Using the Joinpoint Regression Program
1975-2015 With up to Five Joinpoints, 1992-2015 With up to Four Joinpoints

Table 16.1 - Both Sexes by Race/Ethnicity

Table 16.2 - Males by Race/Ethnicity

Table 16.3 - Females by Race/Ethnicity

Table 16.1 (a) - U.S. Melanoma Mortality, (invasive) Both Sexes by Race, 1975-2015

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U.S. Cancer Mortalityc, 1975-2015
Race/
Ethnicity
Model Joinpoint Trend 1 Joinpoint Trend 2 Joinpoint Trend 3 Joinpoint Trend 4 Joinpoint Trend 5 Joinpoint Trend 6 AAPC
d
Comparability Ratio Estimate
Years APC Years APC Years APC Years APC Years APC Years APC 2006-15 2011-15
All Races Jump^ 1975-77 4.8 1977-90 1.3* 1990-94 -0.3 1994-09 0.5* 2009-13 -0.9 2013-15 -4.5* -1.3* -2.7* 0.9466&
All Races Comparability Ratio 1975-87 1.7* 1987-09 0.3* 2009-13 -0.6 2013-15 -4.7*         -1.2* -2.7* 0.9677&
All Races Standard Joinpoint 1975-89 1.5* 1989-13 0.0 2013-15 -5.3*             -1.2* -2.7*  
White Jump^ 1975-77 5.0 1977-90 1.5* 1990-94 -0.2 1994-09 0.7* 2009-13 -0.6 2013-15 -4.3* -1.0 -2.5* 0.9478&
White Comparability Ratio 1975-87 1.9* 1987-13 0.4* 2013-15 -5.6*             -1.0* -2.7* 0.9677&
White Standard Joinpoint 1975-88 1.8* 1988-13 0.2* 2013-15 -5.0*             -1.0 -2.5*  
Black Jump 1975-15 -0.6*                     -0.6* -0.6* 0.9221
Black Comparability Ratio^ 1975-15 -0.8*                     -0.8* -0.8* 0.9677&
Black Standard Joinpoint 1975-15 -0.9*                     -0.9* -0.9*  

^ Indicates the final selected model.

Table 16.1 (b) - U.S. Melanoma Mortality, (invasive) Both Sexes by Race/Ethnicity, 1992-2015

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U.S. Cancer Mortalityc, 1992-2015
Race/
Ethnicity
Model Joinpoint Trend 1 Joinpoint Trend 2 Joinpoint Trend 3 Joinpoint Trend 4 Joinpoint Trend 5 Joinpoint Trend 6 AAPC
d
Comparability Ratio Estimate
Years APC Years APC Years APC Years APC Years APC Years APC 2006-15 2011-15
All Races Jump^ 1992-10 0.5* 2010-15 -2.2*                 -1.0* -2.2* 0.9455&
All Races Comparability Ratio 1992-11 0.3* 2011-15 -2.7*                 -1.0* -2.7* 0.9677&
All Races Standard Joinpoint 1992-13 0.0 2013-15 -5.4*                 -1.2* -2.7*  
White Jump^ 1992-11 0.6* 2011-15 -2.5*                 -0.8* -2.5* 0.9528&
White Comparability Ratio 1992-13 0.4* 2013-15 -5.6*                 -1.0* -2.7* 0.9677&
White Standard Joinpoint 1992-13 0.2* 2013-15 -5.1                 -1.0 -2.5  
White NH
e f
Jump^ 1992-10 0.9* 2010-15 -1.7*                 -0.6 -1.7* 0.9418&
White NH
e f
Comparability Ratio 1992-13 0.6* 2013-15 -5.5*                 -0.8 -2.5* 0.9677&
White NH
e f
Standard Joinpoint 1992-13 0.4* 2013-15 -5.0                 -0.8 -2.3  
Black Jump 1992-15 -1.1*                     -1.1* -1.1* 0.9814
Black Comparability Ratio^ 1992-15 -1.0*                     -1.0* -1.0* 0.9677&
Black Standard Joinpoint 1992-15 -1.2*                     -1.2* -1.2*  
Black NH
e f
Jump 1992-15 -1.1*                     -1.1* -1.1* 0.9756
Black NH
e f
Comparability Ratio^ 1992-15 -1.0*                     -1.0* -1.0* 0.9677&
Black NH
e f
Standard Joinpoint 1992-15 -1.2*                     -1.2* -1.2*  
API
e
Jump 1992-15 -0.6                     -0.6 -0.6 0.9121
API
e
Comparability Ratio^ 1992-15 -0.8                     -0.8 -0.8 0.9677&
API
e
Standard Joinpoint 1992-15 -1.0                     -1.0 -1.0  
AI/AN
e g
Jump 1992-15 -1.9                     -1.9 -1.9 1.4991
AI/AN
e g
Comparability Ratio^ 1992-15 0.1                     0.1 0.1 0.9677&
AI/AN
e g
Standard Joinpoint 1992-15 0.0                     0.0 0.0  
Hispanic
f
Jump 1992-15 -0.3                     -0.3 -0.3 0.9719
Hispanic
f
Comparability Ratio^ 1992-15 -0.3                     -0.3 -0.3 0.9677&
Hispanic
f
Standard Joinpoint 1992-15 -0.4                     -0.4 -0.4  

^ Indicates the final selected model.

Table 16.2 (a) - U.S. Melanoma Mortality, (invasive) Males by Race, 1975-2015

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U.S. Cancer Mortalityc, 1975-2015
Race/
Ethnicity
Model Joinpoint Trend 1 Joinpoint Trend 2 Joinpoint Trend 3 Joinpoint Trend 4 Joinpoint Trend 5 Joinpoint Trend 6 AAPC
d
Comparability Ratio Estimate
Years APC Years APC Years APC Years APC Years APC Years APC 2006-15 2011-15
All Races Jump^ 1975-87 2.4* 1987-09 0.9* 2009-13 -0.9 2013-15 -5.0         -1.2 -3.0* 0.9295&
All Races Comparability Ratio 1975-88 2.4* 1988-11 0.6* 2011-15 -2.9*             -1.0* -2.9* 0.9677&
All Races Standard Joinpoint 1975-87 2.4* 1987-97 0.9* 1997-00 -1.7 2000-09 0.9* 2009-13 -0.9 2013-15 -5.0* -1.2* -3.0*  
White Jump^ 1975-87 2.5* 1987-09 1.0* 2009-13 -0.6 2013-15 -4.9         -1.0 -2.8* 0.9294&
White Comparability Ratio 1975-89 2.4* 1989-13 0.6* 2013-15 -6.4*             -1.0 -3.0* 0.9677&
White Standard Joinpoint 1975-87 2.5* 1987-97 1.0* 1997-00 -1.6 2000-09 1.1* 2009-13 -0.7 2013-15 -4.8* -1.1 -2.8*  
Black Jump 1975-15 -1.0*                     -1.0* -1.0* 1.0733
Black Comparability Ratio^ 1975-15 -0.6*                     -0.6* -0.6* 0.9677&
Black Standard Joinpoint 1975-15 -0.8*                     -0.8* -0.8*  

^ Indicates the final selected model.

Table 16.2 (b) - U.S. Melanoma Mortality, (invasive) Males by Race/Ethnicity, 1992-2015

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U.S. Cancer Mortalityc, 1992-2015
Race/
Ethnicity
Model Joinpoint Trend 1 Joinpoint Trend 2 Joinpoint Trend 3 Joinpoint Trend 4 Joinpoint Trend 5 Joinpoint Trend 6 AAPC
d
Comparability Ratio Estimate
Years APC Years APC Years APC Years APC Years APC Years APC 2006-15 2011-15
All Races Jump^ 1992-09 0.9* 2009-13 -0.9 2013-15 -5.0             -1.3 -3.0 0.9287&
All Races Comparability Ratio 1992-11 0.6* 2011-15 -2.9*                 -1.0* -2.9* 0.9677&
All Races Standard Joinpoint 1992-13 0.3* 2013-15 -6.2                 -1.2 -3.0*  
White Jump^ 1992-09 1.0* 2009-13 -0.7 2013-15 -4.8             -1.1 -2.8 0.9275&
White Comparability Ratio 1992-13 0.6* 2013-15 -6.4*                 -1.0 -3.0* 0.9677&
White Standard Joinpoint 1992-13 0.4* 2013-15 -5.9                 -1.0 -2.8  
White NH
e f
Jump^ 1992-09 1.3* 2009-13 -0.5 2013-15 -4.7             -0.8 -2.6 0.9236&
White NH
e f
Comparability Ratio 1992-13 0.8* 2013-15 -6.2*                 -0.8 -2.8* 0.9677&
White NH
e f
Standard Joinpoint 1992-13 0.6* 2013-15 -5.7                 -0.8 -2.6  
Black Jump 1992-15 -0.6                     -0.6 -0.6 1.0848
Black Comparability Ratio^ 1992-15 0.0                     0.0 0.0 0.9677&
Black Standard Joinpoint 1992-15 -0.2                     -0.2 -0.2  
Black NH
e f
Jump 1992-15 -0.4                     -0.4 -0.4 1.0630
Black NH
e f
Comparability Ratio^ 1992-15 0.0                     0.0 0.0 0.9677&
Black NH
e f
Standard Joinpoint 1992-15 -0.1                     -0.1 -0.1  
API
e
Jump 1992-15 -2.3*                     -2.3* -2.3* 1.1341
API
e
Comparability Ratio^ 1992-15 -1.6*                     -1.6* -1.6* 0.9677&
API
e
Standard Joinpoint 1992-15 -1.7*                     -1.7* -1.7*  
AI/AN
e g
Jump 1992-15 -1.3                     -1.3 -1.3 2.0813
AI/AN
e g
Comparability Ratio^ 1992-15 1.6                     1.6 1.6 0.9677&
AI/AN
e g
Standard Joinpoint 1992-15 1.5                     1.5 1.5  
Hispanic
f
Jump 1992-15 0.1                     0.1 0.1 0.9001
Hispanic
f
Comparability Ratio^ 1992-15 -0.2                     -0.2 -0.2 0.9677&
Hispanic
f
Standard Joinpoint 1992-15 -0.3                     -0.3 -0.3  

^ Indicates the final selected model.

Table 16.3 (a) - U.S. Melanoma Mortality, (invasive) Females by Race, 1975-2015

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U.S. Cancer Mortalityc, 1975-2015
Race/
Ethnicity
Model Joinpoint Trend 1 Joinpoint Trend 2 Joinpoint Trend 3 Joinpoint Trend 4 Joinpoint Trend 5 Joinpoint Trend 6 AAPC
d
Comparability Ratio Estimate
Years APC Years APC Years APC Years APC Years APC Years APC 2006-15 2011-15
All Races Jump 1975-86 1.0* 1986-12 -0.4* 2012-15 -3.4             -1.4* -2.6* 0.9788
All Races Comparability Ratio^ 1975-86 1.0* 1986-12 -0.3* 2012-15 -3.5*             -1.4* -2.7* 0.9677&
All Races Standard Joinpoint 1975-89 0.8* 1989-15 -0.7*                 -0.7* -0.7*  
White Jump 1975-88 1.0* 1988-15 -0.5*                 -0.5* -0.5* 1.0101
White Comparability Ratio^ 1975-85 1.2* 1985-12 -0.1 2012-15 -3.1             -1.1 -2.4 0.9677&
White Standard Joinpoint 1975-88 1.0* 1988-15 -0.4*                 -0.4* -0.4*  
Black Jump 1975-15 -0.3                     -0.3 -0.3 0.8227&
Black Comparability Ratio^ 1975-15 -0.9*                     -0.9* -0.9* 0.9677&
Black Standard Joinpoint 1975-15 -1.0*                     -1.0* -1.0*  

^ Indicates the final selected model.

Table 16.3 (b) - U.S. Melanoma Mortality, (invasive) Females by Race/Ethnicity, 1992-2015

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U.S. Cancer Mortalityc, 1992-2015
Race/
Ethnicity
Model Joinpoint Trend 1 Joinpoint Trend 2 Joinpoint Trend 3 Joinpoint Trend 4 Joinpoint Trend 5 Joinpoint Trend 6 AAPC
d
Comparability Ratio Estimate
Years APC Years APC Years APC Years APC Years APC Years APC 2006-15 2011-15
All Races Jump 1992-12 -0.4* 2012-15 -3.4*                 -1.4* -2.6* 0.9805
All Races Comparability Ratio^ 1992-12 -0.3* 2012-15 -3.5*                 -1.4* -2.7* 0.9677&
All Races Standard Joinpoint 1992-12 -0.5* 2012-15 -3.2                 -1.4* -2.5*  
White Jump 1992-15 -0.5*                     -0.5* -0.5* 1.0097
White Comparability Ratio^ 1992-12 -0.1 2012-15 -3.2                 -1.1* -2.4* 0.9677&
White Standard Joinpoint 1992-15 -0.4*                     -0.4* -0.4*  
White NH
e f
Jump 1992-15 -0.2*                     -0.2* -0.2* 1.0071
White NH
e f
Comparability Ratio^ 1992-12 0.2 2012-15 -3.0                 -0.9 -2.2 0.9677&
White NH
e f
Standard Joinpoint 1992-15 -0.2                     -0.2 -0.2  
Black Jump 1992-15 -1.5*                     -1.5* -1.5* 0.9236
Black Comparability Ratio^ 1992-15 -1.8*                     -1.8* -1.8* 0.9677&
Black Standard Joinpoint 1992-15 -1.9*                     -1.9* -1.9*  
Black NH
e f
Jump 1992-15 -1.5*                     -1.5* -1.5* 0.9254
Black NH
e f
Comparability Ratio^ 1992-15 -1.8*                     -1.8* -1.8* 0.9677&
Black NH
e f
Standard Joinpoint 1992-15 -1.9*                     -1.9* -1.9*  
API
e
Jump 1992-15 1.0                     1.0 1.0 0.7554
API
e
Comparability Ratio^ 1992-15 -0.1                     -0.1 -0.1 0.9677&
API
e
Standard Joinpoint 1992-15 -0.3                     -0.3 -0.3  
AI/AN
e g
Jump - -                     - - -
AI/AN
e g
Comparability Ratio - -                     - - -
AI/AN
e g
Standard Joinpoint - -                     - -  
Hispanic
f
Jump 1992-15 -0.8*                     -0.8* -0.8* 1.0553
Hispanic
f
Comparability Ratio^ 1992-15 -0.4                     -0.4 -0.4 0.9677&
Hispanic
f
Standard Joinpoint 1992-15 -0.6                     -0.6 -0.6  

^ Indicates the final selected model.

Footnotes

Joinpoint Regression Program Version 4.6.0.0, April 2018, National Cancer Institute. (https://surveillance.cancer.gov/joinpoint/).

The APC is the Annual Percent Change based on rates age-adjusted to the 2000 US Std Population (19 age groups - Census P25-1130).

c Trends are from US Mortality Files, National Center for Health Statistics, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

d The AAPC is the Average Annual Percent Change and is based on the APCs calculated by Joinpoint.

e API - Asian/Pacific Islander, AI/AN - American Indian/Alaska Native, NH - Non-Hispanic

f Hispanic and Non-Hispanic are not mutually exclusive from whites, blacks, Asian/Pacific Islanders, and American Indians/Alaska Natives. Incidence data for Hispanics and Non-Hispanics are based on NHIA and exclude cases from the Alaska Native Registry. The Hispanic and Non-Hispanic mortality trends exclude deaths from New Hampshire and Oklahoma.

g Data for American Indian/Alaska Native are based on the CHSDA(Contract Health Service Delivery Area) counties.

* The APC/AAPC is significantly different from zero (p<.05).

* The APC/AAPC is significantly different from zero (p<.05).

- Joinpoint regression line analysis could not be performed on data series.

& Significant at level 0.05 for test of Comparability Ratio = 1.